There’s so much to be thankful for, amidst the challenges we’ve faced this year. We’re counting our blessings!

Pilgrim doggies from Lulu.com

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Below is an email interview with Brent Kessel, author of It’s Not About the Money: Unlock Your Money Type to Achieve Spiritual and Financial Abundance*, a book that I reviewed earlier this week.

Why did you decide to write a book?

Without wanting to sound cliché, I never really feel like a made the decision. I had observed so many people suffering around financial issues, and barking up the wrong tree, as it were, that I felt compelled to write it. It was one of the easiest things I?ve ever done professionally.

What do you think is the number one reason people fail financially?

They don?t understand what payoff their financial habits are giving them. If they?re chronic overspenders, there?s a need that their purchases are filling, an emotional need, and buying purses or cars or new furniture allows them to feel good about themselves for some time. In order to change the financial habit, they have to replace the payoff with some other payoff that fills the same need. But most people never question what?s motivating their financial habits.

You say in your book that the ideal person would be balanced among the eight financial archetypes. How do you recommend a person obtain that balance?

It?s very difficult work, but very rewarding. It?s very hard to answer this question in a generalized way, which is why there are about 60 highly customized exercises in the book, so that each archetype can create the balance that they need. One way to say it, is that we often need to cultivate the positive attributes of the archetype which is most dormant in us. So for me, that?s mostly been the Innocent. Being willing to have faith and trust that things will work out, without putting quite so much focus on the numbers, given that I?m a Guardian/Saver/Empire Builder predominantly.

Which of the eight archetypes do you think is most prevalent in today?s society?

Pleasure Seeker and Innocent were prevalent until Summer 2008, which is why we?re in this mess. Today, it?s much more Guardian and Saver. People seem to be returning to the values of the ?30?s ? 50?s, but we?ll see how long that lasts.

How do you explain the archetypes to your clients?

I usually don?t. This is part of why I wrote the book, so that they could read the complete story about each archetype in there. As an example, I?ll more intuitively give a client ?homework? to spend more money on things which bring sensory pleasure, in the case of an overly frugal Saver, or have an Innocent hire a bookkeeper or sign up for an internet-based service like mint.com which shows them where the money?s all going.

What is the typical response from your clients once they learn about the different archetypes?

?Wow, I had no idea you had me so pegged.?

Do you ever have clients who deny the findings?

?Not really. The most I?ve had is someone who felt they couldn?t find themselves in any of them, which is usually a sign of the Innocent. Some people feel that they?re a balance of many, or that it?s constantly changing. Both of these are good signs.?

Once you know a client?s financial archetype, how do you cater your financial advice to fit the archetype?

Again, this is very customized. The Appendix of the book has specific financial planning recommendations tailored to each archetype, and it?s many pages, so it?s hard to summarize. But one example might be to have a Pleasure Seeker sell their vacation home and art collection and deploy that money in more income-producing assets (which don?t produce sensory pleasure), like stocks, bonds, or income properties.

Since writing the book, do you find yourself trying to figure out the archetypes of the people you meet?

Sometimes. It?s mostly intuitive though. If you go to my first MSN story, there?s a video of me walking around Central Park interviewing people and guessing their archetypes. Kind of humorous. The other stories there may give you some good blogging ideas too.

Finally, is it natural for a person?s archetype to change over the years or do people tend to stay the same throughout their lifetimes?

The healthiest people I?ve met with money are able to express different ones at different times. But there?s a whole class of people who, especially when the going gets tough, go back to their tried and true archetypes. Financial habits are hard to break, because unless we very intentionally try to cultivate those which have been dormant, they?ll stay dormant.

Thanks, Brent!

Also, I want to go ahead and announce the winner of the “It’s Not About the Money” book giveaway. There were forty-nine entries and the randomly-selected winner was commenter #31, Walter. Congrats, Walter. I hope you enjoy your book!

I have another giveaway coming up soon. Stay tuned…

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Those who run real estate investment clubs have a big challenge in lining up speakers for each meeting.  Clubs do not usually have the kind of budget that would allow them to pay for speakers, therefore they need to do their best to locate those that will speak for free.  This invariably results in the talk being given by someone who has a specific agenda or something to sell.  This is not necessarily a bad thing, you just need to keep the speakers ultimate motivation in mind when you listen to the spiel.

Some of these speakers are quite good and their knowledge is obvious.  On the other hand, some of the speakers leave you scratching your head and wondering if they have ever owned an investment property.  Investing veterans have little difficulty in separating the fakes from those who are the real deal.  Novice investors may mistakenly assume that if someone is speaking to a group he must know something.  Hopefully they will learn before they are burned by one of these phonies. 

 My primary purpose for attending monthly club meetings is for the networking and resulting connections ( see: Getting the Most From Your Real Estate Club ), however I do enjoy hearing from good presenters. My local real estate club had two very well qualified speakers at a couple of recent meetings.  While both were very obviously qualified to speak about real estate investing, their styles and agendas were a world apart.  

 Guru #1

At our May 2008 club meeting we had a speaker who specialized in foreclosures.  Certainly a timely topic and on that I was looking to learn more about.  I had seen this speaker once before and knew that he was a good presenter and very knowledgeable.  After introducing himself and providing his background, he openly stated his agenda.  He was not there to sell books, tapes or home-study courses, in fact he didn’t have any of that.  The business model for his company was to purchase bank REO (foreclosures) properties in bulk.  He then sold these properties as-is or after light rehab to investors at wholesale prices.  To do that he needed two things, properties to buy from banks and investors to sell them to.

What he was pitching was a two day seminar on how to locate, buy and finance the acquisition of these properties.  He was charging $1800 for the seminar with the guarantee that he would refund your money after the first day if you didn’t feel it was worth it.  He then proceeded to spend the next hour sharing some of his knowledge of the subject.  He was truly impressive and it was a great example of what you would get in his workshop.  He had over twenty people sign up and most of them were veteran investors who are not easily impressed.

 Guru #2

At our most recent club meeting we had another speaker with impressive credentials.  He is currently featured on one the house flipping shows and has a real estate company on the east coast.  The club heavily promoted the meeting because they do not usually have a name speaker and the resulting attendance was much larger than normal.  Many of the regular meeting segments were cut short to allow this speaker to have as much time as possible.

This speaker had an array of tapes and course material displayed, so his agenda was obvious to anyone who was paying attention.  He began his talk with his background in real estate and talked about all of the mistakes he made when he began.  He kept telling us that he was going to teach us how to do this, that, and the other thing during his talk.  I kept waiting for him to actually “teach” something but all he really did was talk about what he was going to tell us.

As the talk progressed it was laced with sales pitches for a computer program, home-study courses and his five-day boot camp.  Some of the pitches were very subtle while others were blatant commercials.  After 90 minutes he closed with a final pitch for his boot camp.  The regular price was $5,000, but is you signed up now it was only $2,497.  But wait, there’s more! He would include a $500 credit for your travel expenses and the first few people to sign up would receive the $2,000 computer program for $1!

A handful of people did sign up.  From what I saw they were newcomers to the club or novice investors.  None of the veterans were impressed enough to part with their cash. 

The Bottom Line

Both of the gurus were qualified to speak about real estate.  However their value was very different.  One was geared to marketing courses and boot camps to novice investors.  Those who sign up would most likely gain valuable knowledge, but would it really be worth the price?  The second guru was targeting experienced investors with a desire to participate in the foreclosure market.  I spoke to several of the attendees who agreed that there was definite value, but it was not for everyone.

If you are ever inclined to sign up for some gurus course, do so with your eyes wide open.  Is the course geared to someone with your level of experience?  What do you hope to gain from the seminar or boot camp?  Will you be able to implement what you learn or are you just falling for a sales pitch from a smooth-talking speaker? Buyer beware.

The great difficulty in education is to get experience out of ideas.
George Santayana

This Post is from the BiggerPockets Real Estate Blog. Copyright © 2008 BiggerPockets, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

A Tale of Two Real Estate Gurus

Additional casualties and signs of economic recession: laid off bloggers and your favorite web sites for sale!

Do you see what’s in store for you next year? Well, I’ve peeked at my crystal ball and can see the same thing you’re all seeing, an ugly 2009 as the economy continues to contract. Still no relief in sight (or maybe just a little, with Obama stepping in with a pep talk and an action plan).

Still, the tremors reverberate in the blogosphere.

More and more bloggers are reporting that they’ve been laid off, or are afraid that they will be. Some of the ones I know:

• Trent Lapinski’s Blog: Dear Barak Obama, I?m 22 I Just Got Laid Off, and I Can?t Afford College - Please Help (ugh! This was hard to read.)
• Amateur Asset Allocator: I Was Laid Off Yesterday
• Finance Your Life: Job Security: I Am Safe….Right?
• Shaun’s Real Estate Adventures: This is Why I Want Passive Income
• The Smart Passive Income Blog: Nevermind. I Just Got Laid Off

Judging by the dates on these posts, changes have been coming fast and quick! I’ve also mentioned that TechCrunch has this layoff tracker while Gawker (the online media name that bloggers look up to ) is selling off The Consumerist, and Valleywag (what!? one less Silicon Valley blog?) and trimming its staff. You can see how the online world has been taking its hits.

The trends have been reflecting reality for a while now, so when are they announcing that we’re officially in the dog house?

I’ve also talked about how we’re coping with the recession in Silicon Valley, but whatever else I’ve got to say about this can fill a book. Anyway, it’s been the subject of deep conversation between me and my close friends and family these past few weeks.

More Signs of Economic Recession Where I Live

Just to see how widespread the financial pain is, I’ve polled the people I know for their stories and concerns — here are just a few:

• A couple of people I know have been laid off in the last two weeks. These are people who work at smaller companies that are now embarking on cost cutting measures. With the VC spigot closing off, startups that aren’t solvent will be forced to cut back heavily or close down completely. Startups are living on borrowed time. These events are reminiscent of massive layoffs in Silicon Valley in 2000 during the tech bust, so it’s not new to me. I should get used to this happening every 5 to 8 years, I guess.
• Friends of mine who are consultants are experiencing delays in payments. Uh oh. They’ve done the work, but there’s some worry they’ll end up on a long list of creditors waiting to get paid.
• Too close to home! I never thought it would happen, but someone I know pretty well actually is in the process of losing their house. The story is complicated — he was a victim of a drawn out scam that got exposed by the housing downturn. And I’ve heard rumors of acquaintances going on short sales on expensive homes they purchased only a few years ago (and which I had the pleasure of visiting during house-warming parties galore way back when).
• I heard about how there are scores of luxury cars just sitting on Long Beach right now, with no takers. I got this story from a guy who’s well insulated from the crisis because he’s sitting on a huge pile of cash (he’s very conservative with his savings). Yet, he’s concerned about the effect of currency exchange on his international business.
• Some of us self-employed folks are seriously thinking of joining the many out there who’re already chasing what few jobs are around. I read that Cisco’s job listings have dropped by 93% in one week, from many thousands of openings to a trickle of a few hundred.
• I miss “happy” news. Could this be capitulation? Or close?

Break Open Your Emergency Funds

For many whose lives have been viciously upturned by the forces of the economy, it sure feels that this recession isn’t “normal”. But the reality is that this is probably what a “true” recession feels like. The waves of an economic downturn are much like dealing with the effects of an impending tornado. The tornado spares some while it devastates others. You just pray it doesn’t hit your household when it comes, although you can expect it to do a number on your landscape.

This has become a time of emergency for many. Our situation clearly emphasizes the importance of having enough insurance to cover ourselves when such a “disaster” hits — and when I mean insurance, I am referring to emergency funds and enough liquidity to tide you over during the storm. Does this mean we should have at least 1 years’ worth of expenses in cash? Maybe so, especially since nasty recessions can last that long! If you’ve got unemployment benefits covering you for 6 to 9 months plus a one year stash of cash, you could get through this nail-biting ride.

So let’s hunker down in the basement and see if we can ignore the angry winds out there for now. I’m doing it by starting the ball rolling on some portfolio rebalancing efforts (gah!) and selling off investment losers.

So let’s check what else is on the minds of our favorite financial bloggers, shall we?

• Consumerism Commentary: Take Control of Your Finances Part 5: Build A Better Budget
• Five Cent Nickel: Ted Turner on The Economy
• Free Money Finance: Is Your 401k Dying?
• Credit Karma: Are You Financially Prepared For Disaster?
• Rich Credit Debt Loan: Getting Rich By Leveraging Debt
• Lazy Man and Money: Oil’s Well That Ends Well
• Brip Blap: The Results Oriented Work Environment
• Frugal Dad: Looking For Happiness In All The Wrong Places
• Gen X Finance: Is an Extended Warranty on a Used Car Worth It? The Good, Bad, and Ugly of These Service Contracts
• Million Dollar Journey: Common Job Interview Questions
• One Mint: Can You Take A Loan On A Simple IRA?
• My Simpler Life: Fitting In Household Chores
• The Personal Financier: Thoughts on Citi in Trouble, Market Swings, Stock Charts

Notable Mentions Around The Web

• MSN Money Blog mentions our post on 10 signs of a stock market bottom.
• WSJ’s The Wallet Blog mentions our post on last minute gift ideas.

Recent Carnivals

• Carnival of Financial Planning
• Work At Home Blog Carnival
• Carnival of The Vanities
• Money Hacks Carnival

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It's a rhetorical question, I think.  Or, maybe not.  If I have already decided the answer, does that make it rhetorical.  Because here's the answer:  absolutely not.

Several months ago, I wrote a post about the wonder juice, Mona Vie.  It's a juice made with acai berry and other exotic sounding things that you couldn't possibly grow yourself.  You see, you would have to get the magic seeds from the depths of the Brazillian rain forest.  Ever wonder why the most healthy things in the world only grow in the far reaches of Brazillian rain forests and Himalayan mountain tops?

Anyway, I analyzed the business plan offered to those wishing to be part of the Mona Vie pyramid.  Er, I mean, take advantage of the exciting business opportunity.  Looks to me like it is possible to make some money.  Of course, I don't wish to view all of my friends and family as sales prospects.  So, I guess I wouldn't be successful.

Not surprisingly, the comments were one of two things.  Either it was someone telling us all that Mona Vie cured their high blood pressure, insomnia, baldness, made them taller, grew back their amputated leg, etc.  The other type of comment was that Mona Vie made them broke, ruined their marraige, caused them to be impotent and friendless.  Tragic, really.

So, I guess I shouldn't be surprised that it was that same post that instigated my first bit of hate mail.  Here's the email that I found in my inbox this morning:

"It seems that before you question the business of Mona Vie that you would at least find out what pv means.  Hey, here's a concept why don't you drink it for a month and then make your claims.  How long do you have to take vitamins before feeling any difference?  Do vitamins help lower your blood pressure because that is what Mona Vie has done for my mother.  Don't ruin it for everyone else who can benefit from the nutritional value of Mona Vie."

It was sent from the catering department of a golf course.  I wonder if she's slipping some acai berries into the fruit tart.  Lucky golfers.

Essentially, Leasing is just an alternative way to finance a new vehicle. We know that when purchasing a new vehicle the down payment, sales tax and license fees are required to be paid up front. However when leasing a new vehicle you are required to pay only the first monthly payment, a security deposit (usually same as monthly payment), and the license fees. The sales tax (which is based on the capitalized value of the vehicle) is actually amortized over the term of the lease in most states. In other words, the taxes are included in the monthly payments.

Capitalized Cost

Essentially the capitalized cost of a new vehicle is the actual price you have agreed to pay for the vehicle.

Gross Capitalized Cost

The gross capitalized cost of a new vehicle includes the selling price of the vehicle (which is the capitalized cost plus acquisition fees, extended warranty, accident & health insurance, dealer title fee, payoff on your trade-in, credit life insurance, gap insurance and any other fees the dealer decides to charge you). Buyer beware; that most people really don't ever know what their capitalized cost is because it is buried within the gross capitalized cost and the dealer doesn't actually reveal this number unless he has to. Most car deals made at auto dealerships are negotiated on the basis of payment rather than price. This applies to both leasing and purchasing. Don't get caught in this trap! Make the dealer reveal the selling price for every payment offer he makes you!

Adjusted Capitalized Cost

The adjusted capitalized cost of a new vehicle is the gross capitalized cost minus (-) your down payment, net trade-in amount, rebates, license fees and taxes along with any other deductions given.

Depreciation/Residual

When purchasing a new vehicle your payments are based on the full value or selling price, plus extended warranty, tax & license, minus (-) rebate, down payment and net trade-in value. However, when you lease a vehicle your payments are based only on the "depreciation or your use" of the vehicle during the entire term of the lease. The depreciation is actually only a portion of the capitalized cost of the vehicle and is determined by the term of the lease, number of miles driven and condition of the vehicle at the end of the lease. The payments on a lease are based on the deprecation money factor (which is a form of interest rate) and the amortized taxes. Therefore, you can actually drive a more expensive vehicle with a lower payment if you lease. Please note that the depreciation is actually estimated and set at the inception of the lease.

The residual is the portion or balance of the adjusted capitalized cost after the deprecation has been deducted. The residual is just put aside in limbo until the end of the lease. The higher the residual - the lower your monthly payment. At the end of the lease you have two options. You can either turn the vehicle back into the bank or leasing company, or you can buy the vehicle outright for the residual balance. You can even refinance the residual. But keep in mind if you turn in the vehicle with more mileage than allowed on your contract, you will be charged any where from .12¢ to .25¢ for each extra mile. In an auto lease you are limited to a specific number of miles in your lease contact. The average would be from 12,000 to 15,000 miles per year. You may drive any number of miles in any given year but you cannot exceed the number of allotted miles or you will be penalized. If you purchase the vehicle the charge for the extra mileage will normally be waved. Most banks and finance companies will allow you to add an extra 15,000 to 20,000 miles to your lease contract depending on the term of the lease. However, the cost of the extra miles will be added to your gross capitalization cost and your monthly payment will be increased accordingly.

Ownership

When you have entered into a lease contract you cannot terminate the lease or turn-in your vehicle prior to the ending date of the contract. If you do this the bank will report this as a voluntary repossession on your credit record. On an auto lease the vehicle is actually registered and titled to the bank or leasing company. Therefore you do not own the vehicle, the bank does. You get to use the vehicle and are legally responsible for the upkeep and maintenance. Please note, if you don't maintain the vehicle during the lease you will be penalized for all excessive wear-and-tear when you turn it in. Also, if you really needed to get out of your lease you can buy out of the lease if you can get the financing or you can get someone to take over your lease. Of course, they will have to qualify.

Vehicle Warranties

The average new car warranty is 36 months or 36000 miles, which ever comes first. It is not recommended that you enter into a 4, 5 or 6 year lease contract because they are not economical. Even with a four-year lease it is common for the residual to be higher than the actual value of the vehicle at the end of the lease which makes it very hard to refinance. If you are like a lot of people you can lease a new vehicle every 2 to 3 years and never have to buy an extended warranty. The only time it would be beneficial to buy an extended warranty is if you knew you were going to buy the vehicle outright at the end of the lease.

Gap Insurance

Gap Insurance is basically insurance coverage on the difference between the actual value of your vehicle and the balance you owe on the lease including the residual. This kind of protection is needed in case your vehicle is involved in an accident and is declared a total loss. Gap Insurance is important especially for people who lease vehicles. The lease on a vehicle is actually designed for the balance owed to be upside-down in relation to the actual value of the vehicle until approximately the end date of the lease term. At this time the residual should fall in line or be equal to the vehicle's actual value. Gap Insurance is good for purchase financing as well. The gap is not as large as in leasing, but you still stand the chance of having to put out a great deal of money.

Final Advice

Remember, there are two main factors you must consider when you are thinking about leasing an automobile. The first is how long you intend to keep the vehicle and the second is how many miles you travel annually. If you intend to keep the vehicle a maximum of three years and you only average 15,000 miles a year, then you should definitely consider leasing. If you want to keep the new vehicle for more than three years, you should consider purchasing.

When you lease a vehicle, you very rarely have to put any money down, so lease a new vehicle every two to three years and you won't owe any money on the old vehicle, plus you'll never have to buy an extended warranty. Also, you will have spent a ton of money less for each vehicle than if you had purchased them. If you want to keep a vehicle longer just buy it at the end of the lease.

Remember, don't let the dealer try to sell you on the basis of payments. Negotiate on the price only and when you have agreed on the price then tell them you have a trade-in. When you have agreed to your trade-in value then tell them you want to lease the new vehicle. Now you know what to do from here. Also, dealerships have a tendency to quote lease payments without the monthly tax. This makes a big difference in the monthly payments. If you don't control this you will be sadly surprised when you go into the finance manager to sign the paperwork. One more thing - when you are signing the lease contract, be sure to verify that the trade-in value you have agreed upon is actually deducted from the capitalized cost. Otherwise the dealer could wind up purchasing your trade for pennies and you would never know.

Visit My site http://www.autopurchasesecrets.com for more free information on the secrets the dealerships don't want you to know.

About the Author

Brad spent thirteen years in the Automobile business, specifically auto sales and worked for several Dealerships. He held positions from Retail Salesman up through New Car Manager and Fleet Manager. During this period Brad received an excellent education on what goes on inside the Automobile Dealerships. You can visit and communicate with Brad at his website http://www.autopurchasese

I’ve been reading more and more about the threat of deflation. What’s deflation? I can’t find a better definition for it than what’s in the Barron’s Finance and Investment Handbook*:

DEFLATION decline in the prices of goods and services. Deflation is the reverse of inflation; it should not be confused with disinflation, which is a slowing down in the rate of price increases. Generally, the economic effects of deflation are the opposite of those produced by inflation, with two notable exceptions: (1) prices that increase with inflation do not necessarily decrease with deflation—union wage rates, for example; (2) while inflation may or may not stimulate output and employment, marked deflation has always affected both negatively.

In other words, deflation is not a good thing even though price declines sound wonderful to the shopper!

Here’s a great little deflation tutorial if you’re interested: What is Deflation and Why is it Worrisome?

Are we headed for deflation? I have no idea. I think we’ve already seen it in housing and oil prices. Will we see it in other areas? I don’t know. I think it depends on how high unemployment goes.

Nouriel Roubini is expecting stag-deflation (stagnation/recession + deflation)…that doesn’t sound so good.

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Failure was not an option. The government finally stepped in on Sunday and unveiled plans to take over troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, putting to rest fears that the two firms would collapse and send the housing market into a death spiral.

The housing market breathed a sigh of relief – but no cheers from the stockholders of the two firms. Fannie Mae [FNM] was trading at around $7.00 towards the end of last week and immediately collapsed to about a buck on news of the announcement. As of close today it’s hovering around $0.74.

For investors Fannie and Freddie have seemed like a pretty safe play for years. Stodgy, even. A publically traded pseudo-government entity which was crucial to the U.S. economy and backed by government guarantees seemed like a pretty safe place to stash away some cash that you didn’t want invested in risky stuff; let the day-traders mess with the bio-techs and dot.coms.

But what a difference a week makes.

A lot of investors took a bath on this one. We’re still in the shadow of Enron, WorldCom, Quest, Tyco, and others – but I never cease to be amazed when I speak to folks who have large percentages of their net worth tied up in a single stock. Sometimes it’s because it’s a “safe bet”, or because they’re comfortable and haven’t bothered to rebalance. But most often it’s because they work for the company in question.

This isn’t smart behavior. Real estate investors understand that there is no reward without risk, but diversification is the way that smart, tactical investors hedge their bets. Anything else is just gambling.

Contrast this to the advice that millions of Americans swallow then they read what is undoubtedly the worst personal finance book ever: Robert Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad Poor Dad. Diversification, according to get-rich-guru Kiyosaki, is for suckers. “Put a lot of your eggs in a few baskets,” he exhorts. “Do not do what poor and middle class people do: put their few eggs in many baskets.” A balanced portfolio “…is not the way that successful investors play the game.” These are quotes from the book; I’m not making this stuff up. The biggest problem with Rich Dad Poor Dad is not that it’s filled with vague motivational psycho-babble; it’s that hidden in the self-help hucksterism there are gems like this that are actually dangerous.

Kiyosaki is undoubtedly a smart businessman and has made millions of dollars selling his books and courses, but I’d encourage his true believers out there to take a critical look at some of the ideas that he’s promoting.

Related:

• Why I don't like Rich Dad Poor Dad
• The Black Swan :: The highly improbable and real estate
• Another bailout on the horizon?  Fannie and Freddie

We’ve got the recession in full swing in Silicon Valley and our region, along with many others, is experiencing job losses left and right. So how are we coping with things right now?

Over at the US News Alpha Consumer blog, Kim Palmer has begun a new series called “Recession 2.0, Do You Feel It?”, where she’s asked a few bloggers to share their latest thoughts on this financial slowdown. Well, I just turned in my article yesterday on how we’re dealing with the recession here in Silicon Valley, and it’s now been published.

Coping With The Recession: Income Check

In that article, I wrote with some detail about the adventures (and travails) of two self-employed people who have 2 dependents. My spouse launched his start-up around 2 years ago called BestInClass.com, and only recently did I go off to do my own projects (mostly to do with writing and internet related stuff). We’re doing fine, given the economic setting we have right now, but is what we’re doing enough to keep us afloat in Silicon Valley, where the cost of living is ridiculously stratospheric? That’s the million dollar question.

Well, we continue to trudge on, with just a wee bit of concern about our current income levels. If we continue to bleed green for an extended period of time, we’re going to make a few adjustments (like focus on snaring more service-oriented contracts), but it looks like we’re going to hold on to status quo for now.

Cutting Costs….Hard: There Go The School Funds

Some major change in attitude though, in our household. If you’re a parent (or maybe even if you’re not), you can empathize with this story: there’s a little kid, one of our sweet neighbors, who regularly comes by to sell stuff to raise funds for his school. I’m normally pretty generous and buy items from him every time he drops by. I do the same and order a load of items from my own kids’ schools to support our school district. Unfortunately these days, we’re now watching our money like hawks and account for everything that leaves our pockets. This means that $25 scented gift candles and various overpriced assorted bric-a-bracs, chocolates and what not are no longer part of our discretionary budget. So for the first time ever, I had to leave our little neighbor boy empty-handed. The sad part of the story is, the rest of the neighborhood had the same idea (I took a peek at his order list, and it was pretty much empty).

When times get tough, priorities rule even harder.

Carnival Roundup

Now for the latest from the carnivals! MoneyNing gives us the Smile Edition of the Carnival of Personal Finance. David Ning just quit his job to be a full-time problogger too, did you know? Congrats to him for making the huge step! Anyway from his list of financial articles, I picked a few neat ones to showcase here:

• Free From Broke: Never Mind A New Economic Stimulus Package - Save Yourself! Here are more thoughts on the second stimulus check.
• Cash Money Life: Year End Retirement Plan Moves
• The Wisdom Journal: Money Is 100 Percent Emotional

Next up, The Festival of Frugality was put together by The Financial Wellness Project. You’ll find these posts among other money saving articles in their awesome list:

• Passive Family Income: Turn Frugal Behaviors Into A Game
• Shark Investor: How YOUR Saving Advice Caused The Financial Crisis
  
• Money Beagle: Saving Money By Mulching The Leaves

Recent Carnivals

• Carnival of Money Stories
• Investing Carnival
• Carnival of Money Hawks
• Road To Financial Independence
• Carnival of Debt Reduction
• Total Mind and Body Fitness Blog Carnival
• Best of Me Symphony
• Kids and Money

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Funny stuff by the folks over at Salon.com:

Well, funny if it weren't so true!

Nowadays, the marketplace is rife with risk, so you may wonder whether it’s a good idea to launch a business during a downturn, especially with layoff numbers mounting daily. When is it ever the right time to start a business?

Starting a business during an economic crisis sounds absolutely crazy but let’s put aside our concerns of risk for the moment, and think about some of the advantages. If you are afraid of losing your job due to the economic meltdown, starting a new business may be the perfect antidote. No more bosses, no more pink slips, and no more backstabbing by your fellow workers !

Why Start A Business Today?

There are more than 27 million businesses in the U.S. with less than 500 employees, of which 20 million have no employees, according to the Small Business Administration as mentioned in this page.

With millions of businesses having less than 500 employees, a good chunk of the American population depend on these small businesses for their livelihood. That’s why the SBA (Small Business Administration) is offering funds to help those who have a good plan for starting a business now. They may be worth checking out; they may have some solutions for the budding entrepreneur.

Opening a business is an exhilarating and frightening experience. But think of the rewards; when everybody is hunkering down, you will be very well positioned to take advantage of the inevitable recovery. These ‘no-employee’ businesses are usually family affairs where everybody has a share of the pie, but a sizable portion is owned by independent professionals who work alone. Again, if you were contemplating opening your own business, now may be a good time to do it, especially if you’ve got the resources. Could you be rewarded for bucking the crowd (and the trends)?

Some Advantages To Starting A Business During A Downturn

Let’s consider some of the advantages of starting a business during slow economic conditions:

1. Space is cheaper. Finding an office, a warehouse or even store space is much easier and much cheaper. If I were a commercial real estate owner, I’d rather rent out my space for less than have no tenants at all.
2. Great deals available. Businesses going under have to get what they can for their furniture and electronics. Auctions may offer ridiculously low prices for items that you’ll need.
3. Cheaper employees. A well trained professional will gladly accept a cut in salary rather than face unemployment. Same with clerical workers.
4. Cheaper services. There are all kinds of service providers who have to lower their prices due to the lack of demand. Think of advertising specialists who can prepare your marketing campaign for much less than normal.
5. Less competition. While your competition is waiting out the storm, why not make yourself available, ready to offer people what they need? Even now, though they may be a little harder to find, there are always people in need of a service or product who are willing to pay (albeit possibly for less). Go and find them, don’t wait for them to find you.

Are You Ready For Entrepreneurship?

Everyone can become an entrepreneur, but not everyone can be successful at it. It’s great to envision such possibilities, but before I reel you in on this idea, let it be known that opening a business is not for everyone. The reality is this: not everybody may be qualified or prepared to start and run a business — and just like with the stock market, if you make big mistakes and are not sure about what you’re doing on your own, you can get hurt….badly. And in a downturn, financial wipeout scenarios are all the more common, and dramatic. So if you’re doing this, you MUST have a good plan, you MUST have done your homework, and in many cases, you’ll NEED access to cash.

Depending on the type of business you’re interested in launching, you could potentially face an enormous amount of risk. Plus, in today’s tight credit era, banks are reluctant to loan money, even to the well-qualified clients. So if you’re serious about your business idea, where can you turn? Well, you can approach people you know; start with your network. Or you could use some of your savings (gasp) or show your solid business plan to some of your wealthy friends (if you’ve got any). Some people I know have started their businesses with credit cards, but going down this path is not the most prudent way to go. In today’s era, it may very well be that you’ll have to bootstrap yourself using your own savings or you’ll need to consider the type of business that won’t require money upfront, such as a service-oriented venture.

Despite all the challenges, you may still find this to be your calling. If so, get creative. People still have to eat, buy clothes, and have fun. You can negotiate lower prices from your providers — they are anxious to sell their surplus. Drum up business by visiting churches (why not, the pastor may become your best salesman), schools, hospitals, clubs, and make them an offer they can’t resist. Note however, that this may not be the best way to promote your business .

Most of all, plan your business very carefully by analyzing the trends in your neck of the woods. Creating a niche has never been easier. But certainly, look before you leap and read our tips for small businesses. This article is about contrarian thinking, and contrarians are often vastly rewarded for their guts (no guts, no glory), patience and shrewdness. Whenever we contemplate a particular endeavor, we need to weigh risks vs rewards — the only sane way to really make a financial decision.

This is a post from The Digerati Life.

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Do you cram your holiday shopping on Christmas Eve? If you’re a holiday procrastinator, maybe these simple, convenient, last minute gift ideas and shopping tips will take some of the pressure away.

I, Procrastinator

“Procrastinator” should have been my middle name. I’ve always thought that anything worth doing is worth doing well — tomorrow. Or maybe the day after. I blame my dad, to be honest. As soon as I was old enough to use the pointy scissors, it became an annual tradition for my dad to drag me out after dinner on Christmas Eve to do his Christmas shopping for my mother. This usually took a few hours and involved a fair amount of money, as there was no real plan. Then after she went to bed for the night, Dad would boost all of the packages through my bedroom window, and I’d spend a couple of hours wrapping everything and getting it all under the tree. He paid me $0.25 per package, which I then spent on New Kids on the Block trading cards .

Similarly, now that I’m all grown up, I find myself putting off holiday shopping and spending too much at the last minute because I’m desperate for a gift. I recognize that this is not a good habit and vow each year to mend my ways, but I’ve found that the rate of recidivism when it comes to procrastination is quite high. Oh sure, I do the easy stuff early in the season: the spousal unit always needs new socks and underwear, Mom looks forward to the annual box of See’s candy, etc., etc. The tougher things, thoughtful gifts, are the ones I put off buying.

I’ve come to realize that procrastinating is silly — good gifts don’t need to take a whole lot of effort (or money). For instance, my friend loves snowman ornaments. She also likes to be pampered but doesn’t like to spend money on herself. But instead of searching for and spending too much on the perfect snowman decor, I head over to the salon we both use and pick up a gift certificate for a mid-winter pedicure. She loves getting her scaly winter feet prettied up, even if they spend all of their time in winter boots or fuzzy slippers. See? Easy, no more expensive than the ornament, and interpreted by the recipient as thoughtful. Trifecta!

Last Minute Gift Ideas For Those Who’ve Run Out Of Ideas

Not sure what to get? Here are a few more shopping tips as well as holiday gift ideas that may be convenient, simple enough and good for last minute scrambles, but I believe they’ll make even the biggest procrastinators look pretty good (yes, this list is “gift card heavy”):

• Keep a few basics on hand. There happens to be a fairly large Amish population in my area, and they make and sell beautiful hand woven baskets of all shapes and sizes. I’ve always got a few of these baskets stashed in a closet, and can quickly pick up nuts, cheeses, jams (sometimes also Amish made), candies, wine, etc. Load the goodies into a basket, wrap the basket in cellophane, tie a pretty seasonal ribbon around the top and, ta-da! Insta-gift.
• AAA Membership: Got a friend that drives a clunker? How about a loved one that just has a long daily commute? An annual membership to AAA might save them some enormous headaches, not to mention a lot of money, in the event of a breakdown.
• Wine Club: Does your mom enjoy a glass of wine with dinner? Sign her up for a wine club. Wine.com offers clubs starting at 3-months and $89. Just select reds or whites and you’re on your way. Or perhaps this will do: a wine basket from what else but Winebasket.com, with 5% off your order above any additional discounts you get from items on sale!
• Gift Cards/Certificates: I’m a little tired of hearing people say that you’re “cheating” when you pick up gift cards for those on your list. I disagree with the notion that these aren’t thoughtful gifts — some of the best things I’ve received were made possible through such cards! Actually, I’m always thrilled when someone who knows I’m a reader gives me a Barnes & Noble gift card. And, like the friend I mentioned above, these cards are a good way to treat someone to something that they like but might not otherwise buy for themselves.

  On the plus side, they are easy and convenient gift choices; the downside, however, is that your gift recipient will know how much you’ve spent on them. Or worse, the cards or certificates may go unused, if forgotten. But if you do decide to go this route, then just make sure that what you purchase doesn’t have an expiration date or fees for non-use.

  Some great places that offer general gift cards or certificates?

  • Try GiftCertificates.com, which provide e-gift cards that are redeemable online.
  • You can also pick up cards from the big e-tailers such as Buy.com and Amazon.com.

  I’ve listed more sources for these items below.

• News and Magazine Subscriptions: Every year, my dad renews my husband’s “Sports Illustrated” subscription, and my husband renews my dad’s Wall Street Journal subscription. Everyone drinks some eggnog and goes home happy.
• Entertainment Subscriptions and Gift Cards: One of the easier gifts to give out are those relating to some form of entertainment or another. I’m sure you know more than a few couch potatoes, game enthusiasts and music aficionados who’ll appreciate a subscription, gift card or access to Blockbuster, Gamefly or eMusic respectively! And if you’ve got a frugal aunt (like, who doesn’t? ), maybe the 2009 Entertainment Book will thrill them with its countless discounts for almost everything under the sun.
• Fancy Food for Cheaper? Well, we all have to eat right? You don’t have to be a gourmand to enjoy the gift of a pleasant meal from your choice restaurant. And one of the most affordable gift ideas I’ve come across, which I’m thinking of picking up for several people on my list is a gift certificate to Restaurant.com. In the past, I’ve been presented with a Home Bistro gift certificate, but I’ll be honest and say that I wasn’t too impressed by the meals I’ve received from them. But who knows? That was a few years ago, so maybe things have gotten better since then.
• Gift Cards for the Work at Home Type: Those who want to beef up their home offices or who enjoy gadgets and electronics may love a gift card from Sony’s e-store.
• Beauty and Wellness: A gift that pampers and beautifies will be very apropos for any lady who’d love to look and feel better. Maybe a nice scent or some bath, body and face products from FragranceX or SkinStore.com will tickle her fancy! And since fragrances and beauty products are personal, a gift card is a practical choice.

Once again this year, I vow not to procrastinate when it comes to holiday shopping. But even if I do, I hope not to rack my brain over what presents to give, given how much easier today’s retailers and e-tailers are making it for us to get our shopping done.

At any rate, I’ve started my list already using some of the ideas above, and plan to finish my shopping by December 1. If all goes well, I’ll be able to spend the days leading up to the holidays enjoying my friends and family (and all the holiday food and drinks!), and not panicking about what I’m going to get for whom.

 
SVB’s POV: Thanks to Emiley Thacker for sharing her thoughts with us in this article. As far as I know, there are no Amish communities around where I live .

This is a post from The Digerati Life.

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Finance Findings is Binary Dollar’s periodic link dump.

• Does Achieving Wealth Make You ?Upper Class?? Facts About Class [Digerati Life]
• All the Free Shavers [Sun’s Financial Diary]
• Car Hunt And Enterprise Rent-A-Headache [Tao]
• The 100,000 Wedding Gift? [Lazy Man and Money]
• Mutual Fund Distributions Explained [Generation X Finance]
• Money Mistakes To Avoid - Misunderstanding Risk [Money Smart Life]
• Identity Theft Tips from Frank Abagnale [Blueprint]
• Amazon Deal on the New Harry Potter Book [Five Cent Nickel]
• Mind Over Money — My House is Worth More if I Think It’s Worth More [Free Money Finance]
• IQ and richness [Mighty Bargain Hunter]
• 2007 State Sales Tax Holidays for Back-to-School Shopping [Raising 4 Boys]

Send your submissions for Finance Findings to henry@binarydollar.com.

Sponsor: Parlayer - Henry and Matt blog about sports and stuff.

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How much of your money is in domestic stocks? What percentage of your portfolio is invested internationally?  If you’re like many average investors in the US the majority of your investments are in US companies.

Global Investing Seminar
I attended a seminar on global investing yesterday and it really made me think a little harder about our current exposure to international investments.  I had to keep in mind it was presented by a financial company that runs a global fund, so the point of the seminar was to reinforce the importance of international investing in the minds of current and potential investors.

However, they did cover some interesting statistics that apply no matter what investment vehicle you use to diversify overseas.  They fed us lunch so I didn’t get to write down all the statistics since I was busy feeding my face but I still remember the general concepts.

Global Growth Trends
One of the graphs was from a Morgan Stanley study that looked at the total value of US public companies compared to the total value of international companies.  The graphic showed the value in approximately 20 year time intervals: 1988, 2008, and 2030 projected. 

I wish I had the exact numbers but the overall trend showed a global economy that was dominated by American companies in 1988, maybe about 2/3 of the global corporate value was in the US,  but the estimates for 2030 approximated US companies making up only a quarter of corporate capital markets.

Of course the numbers aren’t exact but I think the trend is definitely accurate and that the US position as the world’s financial superpower is slipping.  While this may not be great news for us as consumers or workers, it does present an opportunity for us as investors.

Evaluating International Markets
The speaker worked for a global fund, his role is to fly around the world visiting and evaluating companies that the fund is considering putting money into. He walked us through his fund’s investment positions in the various global regions, explaining their reasoning behind being underweight in places like Great Britain and overweight in places like Taiwan and South Korea.  He definitely pointed to Asia as the region with highest potential for growth over the next two decades.

He gave some staggering statistics on the sheer size of the Chinese consumer and business market and the enormous potential for growth there.  He also commented on the enormous currency reserves the Chinese government has built up and all the money they need to spend on infrastructure.

However, the speaker went on to warn us that the Chinese markets are overpriced, in his opinion, due to a massive runup in the stocks of Chinese companies over the last few years.  He had the same caution for stocks in India, that the price earning (PE) valuations were higher than they wanted to pay.  His company is looking for opportunities in areas like Taiwan or South Korea where the PE ratios are much lower.

Risks of Investing Internationally
The truth is we live in a global economy and changes around the world can effect how US companies perform so even domestic investments are influenced to an extent by international markets.  However, if you decide to put your money in a foreign company your investment is suddenly influenced heavily by regional events, currency fluctuations, and the policies of the foreign government. 

If you’re investing in an emerging market where there is large amount of growth there’s also typically a lot of change both economically and politically that can potentially put your investment at risk. Although there are risks associated with global investing, in my opinion they are definitely worth the opportunity to benefit from the growth in economies around the world. 

You wouldn’t want to put all of your money into international companies, just make them a part of your investment portfolio.  Several years ago about 10% of our portfolio was in international funds when I increased it to around 15% and now I’m looking to raise the percentage even higher.  How much exposure you want to international markets is up to your situation but it’s definitely something you should at least look into.

How to Invest Internationally
So how can you put your money into companies overseas?  The easiest way is to buy an international ETF or mutual fund.  The approach I decided to take several years ago was to invest in multiple international funds.  I choose an option from my 401k, Dodge & Cox International Stock (DODFX), one from my wife’s 403b, American Century Intl Growth (TWIEX), and also opened a non-retirement account with Oakmark International (OAKIX).

Dodge & Cox International Stock has done the best for us. American Century Intl Growth has been decent but nowhere near the performance of the Dodge and Cox fund.

Oakmark International had been going gangbusters until last December when it took a big hit.  I had been debating between the Oakmark fund and the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VGTSX) back in early 2003. 

Our financial advisor recommended Vanguard but I went with Oakmark instead.  As the graph shows, I’d be wealthier if I’d have listened to her, I guess hindsight is 20/20.  The Total International Stock Index Fund is actually composed of investments in three other Vanguard international indexes:

• Vanguard European Stock Index Fund
• Vanguard Pacific Stock Index Fund
• Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund

The fund is a simple way to gain exposure to a variety of markets all over the world.  There are many other international funds available so you have lots to choose from.

One other option I’m considering for investing overseas is opening an account with ETrade to take advantage of their online global trading.  This would be a different approach than the mutual fund route which would require more research and carry more risk.  It would allow me to invest directly in companies in Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan and the United Kingdom.

International Investing Summary
Whatever approach you decide to take, I’d recommend at least reading up on the growth of economies outside our borders and how you can invest in them.  As I mentioned in the beginning, the long term trend is that international companies are growing to compose more and more of the investment options available to you and all the other investors in the world.  In order to diversify your portfolio and benefit from global growth consider taking a look at your international investment options.

We may think that we need a lot of things.  We may think we need cable TV, our morning coffee and bagel, a couple of pints at the pub each Friday, or a really big house with a mortgage that the lender had to “make work for our income.”

These aren’t really needs when we get down to it, of course.  They’re wants.

The stuff we really need — after breathing — are (a) food (and clean water) in our stomachs, (b) clothes on our backs, and (c) cover over our heads.  To this you might add basic medical care, education, and a few other very important things.

Most people (especially if you’re reading this now, and especially me) can stand to cut out a lot of non-essential items if it’s needed.  This is extreme downsizing and simplification.  It isn’t fun, but it can be done.  Moreover, what’s spent on the essentials can be trimmed way down to boot as well, by doing the little money-saving things again.  Even the essentials can be simplified and scaled back!

Here are a few ways to get by on spending less for food:

• Consider generic brands over name brands.  Generic or store brands are usually (but not always) cheaper than the name brand, and for some products they’re comparable or even better than the name brands.  I prefer store brand diet soda in some cases because I like the taste of one sweetener over another.
• Use coupons for items you buy anyway.  You can get them a number of places, like your weekend newspaper, from magazines, online at the websites for the products, or online at places like CoolSavings or MyPoints.
• Substitute less expensive foods.  How about oatmeal instead of cereal?  How about eggs instead of meat?  How about rice and beans?
• Buy food that requires more preparation or reconstitution.  As in dried beans over canned beans, dehydrated milk over milk in a carton, raw oatmeal over instant oatmeal, or big bags of rice over instant rice.  The other advantage of reconstituting food is that it may keep longer than the “fresh” food.
• Buy food with less packaging.  Packaging means extra cost, and the food tastes the same if it can be resealed and consumed in time.  Binder clips work fine to keep “family-size” snack bags shut.  Reusable storage containers are great for all kinds of food storage.
• Buy in bulk if the price is right and if you know you’ll use what you buy.  We buy rice 50 pounds at a time, and use it.  I buy the big Costco-size box of oatmeal, and eat it.  It usually saves money to buy in quantity.
• Spend more at the grocery store and less at the restaurant.  The cost savings is clear here.  Eat in with friends as opposed to eating out with friends.
• Learn a few easy, cheap recipes.  I know how to cook rice well enough so that I can prepare a cheap, filling lunch (and dinner sometimes) merely by putting a few ounces of beans over the top with some Worcestershire sauce.  Heck, adding rice to a can of soup works, too.
• Be diligent about consuming leftovers.  Odds are you’ll only be eating the same stuff a few days in a row at most.  (Except at Thanksgiving: It’s turkey leftovers for at least a week!)

Cut your clothing bills, too:

• Make your clothes last.  Making things last can be a money-saver.  My wife is an excellent sewer and has given some of my clothes an extra life.  Simple Debt Free Living has a decent introduction and link collection for clothing repair.  But even before that, be kind to your clothes in the washer and don’t overdry them. 
• Check out yard sales.  We’ve found great deals on baby clothes at yard sales, as in maybe a dime apiece for a bagful.  My wife and I have found clothes for us, too.
• Check out thrift shops.  Sometimes the donated clothing has hardly been worn.  The bigger ones usually have a good selection of sizes.  Sometimes they run sales to make room for things.
• Check out consignment shops.  These are perceived as a little higher-brow than thrift stores but the premise is the same:  buy used and save.
• Check out the clearance racks in department stores.  Some department stores perpetually mark things up just to mark them down, but there are still good deals to be had at places like Macy’s or Kohl’s.  Since my wife has a Macy’s store charge card she gets special coupons that get her some really good deals.  Wal-Mart’s hard to beat, too.
• Check out eBay.  There’s always eBay!  They’ve been getting much more buyer-friendly these days.  Buyers cannot receive negative feedback anymore, and eBay is also waging war against inflated shipping charges (which is in their interest, but that’s another story).

Cutting costs on shelter can be a touchy subject but please remember, it boils down to a roof over your head:

• If you’re renting, think very carefully before buying a house.  Owning a house is a worthwhile goal but it can be very expensive.  During the real estate bubble times of the past few years it was more expensive to own a house than it was to rent.  Or, if it was affordable to own a house, in some areas, it would become too expensive later (adjustable rate mortgages).  The start-up costs can be a bit of a shock.  Plus, you’re a lot less mobile in a home than in a rented apartment.
• Reduce operating costs of your living space.  Keep the temperature warmer in the summer and cooler in the winter.  Use compact fluorescent lightbulbs where you can.  Seal cracks where heat (or cool air) can escape.  Don’t use the clothes dryer for one pair of socks.  And so forth.
• Reduce financing costs of your living space.  Pay the mortgage (or rent) on time.  Consider paying the mortgage down a little faster.  Consider refinancing an adjustable-rate mortgage to a fixed-rate mortgage to remove interest rate risk and take advantage of a depreciating currency.  Work to get rid of private mortgage insurance as soon as possible.
• Test the waters for signs of trouble.  Is the checkbook balance going down month by month?  Why?  Is it due to increasing costs associated with your living space?  Is is possible to move into a cheaper living space if the costs of your current living space are getting out of control?  (A good friend realized this.  His family had built a larger house and had been renting their original, smaller house.  The costs of the larger house were too much, so they are working to sell off that one and move back in to their original house.  Hey, it happens, but they recognized what the problem was and are fixing it.)
• Can someone share your living space?  Can you take on a boarder or a roommate?  An unmarried woman at work has a house and has taken on a roommate to subsidize her housing cost.  Alan Corey did this to great benefit; he took the smallest room in the house so that he could rent out the larger ones for more money.
• No affordable options in your area?  Since moving is costly, it’s usually easier to cut other expenses before contemplating a move, especially one out of town to a less expensive area.  But if nothing else seems to work, this is an option.  It may mean leaving friends and family, and finding another job, but the housing cost issue can go away if the price difference is large enough.
• What if the worst happens and you lose your living space?  There are some options.  They’re not great options, obviously, but better than nothing.  Living after foreclosure or eviction might mean moving in with someone who will take you (and your family if they’re involved).  It can mean finding a church or other group that will take you as a “shut-in.”  It could mean taking whatever job you can and renting by the week (Barbara Ehrenreich, author of Nickel and Dimed found this to be a tough life ).  Even more simply, it could mean pitching a tent or sleeping in your car.  This kind of living isn’t something I’d wish on anyone, but unfortunately more people will be thrust into this kind of situation.  And in any case, it doesn’t have to be forever.