Could the failure of the “Big 3″ cause a depression?

That’s what a Chrysler executive claims:

“We’re on the brink with the U.S. auto manufacturing industry,” Press told The Associated Press in an interview. “If we have a catastrophic failure of one of these car companies, in this tender environment for the economy, it’s a huge blow. It could trigger a depression.”

I’m not sure about that but I am sure that it’s in this executive’s best interest to paint as bleak of a picture as possible in order to get his bailout. What do you think?

I’m sure failure would not be good. But, as we’ve talked about before, we can’t just give money to the automakers and allow them to carry on business as usual. Big changes need to be made and now is as good a time as any to make those changes. These changes have needed to be made for years but the current crisis really brought them to light.

Please weigh in with your opinion.

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Who’s to blame for the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression?

Warning… long rant ahead.

Have you heard the latest bad joke around? Okay not this bailout crisis joke I wrote about a week or so ago but the one on how we’re socializing our financial markets by making the taxpayers bail out all our financial institutions. As someone put it, “this is a form of wealth distribution alright, the government robbing from the poor to give to the rich….”.

So when will this nightmare of a crisis end? Sure we’re shoring up our failing banks and institutions right now, and even possibly certain vital industries that are the heart and pulse of our nation. But, I also see the flip-side, which is the fact that we (and our kids, and maybe even our grandkids) will be paying off for this till kingdom come, with the whole thing financed by our debt to foreign interests (e.g. Chinese).

This soap opera can’t be without its sorry cast of characters.

Golden Sach’s Bailout Man: Henry Paulson and George W. Bush, by Buckfush

Big 3 take private jets to grovel for cash, by Daily News

Capitalism Gone Awry

I wonder: how naive have I been? I am big on capitalism and believe wholeheartedly in rewarding anyone for the work they’ve done and value they’ve produced. I’ve always been of the mind that, if a CEO does well by his company and makes me happy as a stockholder, I have no qualms in approving a commensurate pay package for the geezer.

I’ve always been a proponent of self-regulation and a laissez faire economy, but this very thing has led to the disasters we’re seeing today. Now with the government sweeping in to save “the big guys” from themselves and their gross mistakes, I see that apparently, self-accountability is optional in this free market. Very interesting what this blog has to say:

Now consider: finance is a necessary function, but is represents a tax, a drain on the productive economy, just as defense and lawyers do. It is ironic that free market fundamentalists have so vociferously argued for unfettered markets, without understanding (or perhaps understanding all too well) that the house always wins.

The whole crisis has caused a very large swing from one extreme to another, the moving pendulum leaving behind much collateral damage: credit’s gone from very loose to extremely tight overnight.

Some people who had access to a lot of credit will correctly have a lot less, and that on dearer terms. But there are also perfectly worthwhile businesses and individuals who are also caught in the meat grinder of indiscriminate reduction of loan balances. Times are bad, and any efforts to extract more revenues from customers, even if it is blood from a turnip, or worse, even if it puts a viable business under, is warranted.

Silly me to have been so gullible, as I now stand confused about what should be done and how the economy should be run. It doesn’t help that I keep reading stuff like this to feed my migraines and sour stomach bouts.

How This Economic Crisis Is Breaking Financial Rules

What stance do I take now, as a die-hard pro-business supporter? I had placed my faith in the “powers that be” and didn’t think I’d ever see these levels of corruption, unchecked greed and blatant mismanagement in a first world country on this grand a scale (yes, I say this as someone who’s no stranger to the machinations of the third world, where corrupt ineptitude is rampant). This stuff happens, sure enough, but it happens in another world, and under the covers.

But there’s no hiding the ugly anymore. All I can see now is just how the ruling class has done a number on the working masses. And for the millions of people who followed the financial rule book throughout their lives to meet a horrible end to their futures because of the incompetent, morally degenerate few — well, I can say I’m beyond disappointed, and have crossed the line to feeling outrage and disgust.

Yes, this crisis is breaking all sorts of rules, including those I’d consider as long-standing successful personal financial tenets. Responsible approaches to personal finance don’t have a chance against a crisis of tsunamic proportions:

So let’s see — doing the right thing by scrimping, saving, investing, diversifying, doing proper asset allocation, avoiding market timing, indexing, and hedging against inflation through equities, even doing your job well will no longer guarantee you a splendid, worry-free financial future. Not when a “once in a century financial event” can just come by and rob you off the stuff you worked so hard for; not when someone “up there” can change the rules for you, just like that.

I didn’t necessarily see it coming, but some of my readers here have: I see just how observant readers have been, as they’ve shared their insights on the causes and consequences of the subprime mortgage financial crisis, the pros and cons of financial bailouts, and the relevance of market timing during a stock market bear and the current investment climate.

The Economic Crisis Calls For Faith: Do You Have Any To Spare?

Perhaps I’ve placed far too much faith in the integrity of our political and business leaders and trends in modern history to believe that our financial system was strong enough (and people were smart and honest enough) to absorb any shakeups, shocks and imbalances that happen. I still have hope, but recent events continually call to question my position in this matter.

Not long ago, I had asked: who’s to blame for the subprime mortgage mess? I said then that everyone here had a hand in this (from the mortgage lenders to the developers to the Fed to ignorant homeowners), but in reality, I’m now seeing where the bulk of that blame should go. It should be clear by now who should bear the brunt of your harsh judgment: follow the money.

Sure we (as the little people) can’t really do much about this (except whine, rant and call the villains out), but with more discussion, we can spread awareness of these ridiculous affairs. What I got out of this is that there’s little out there we can count on and few people we can trust when it comes to our finances. A sobering thought. Do you think there are really any lessons and takeaways here for the future? Do we even have much of a future the way it’s been mortgaged?

I welcome your thoughts on this matter. Fire away!

This is a post from The Digerati Life.

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INDYMAC IS OFFICALLY CLOSED!!!

In the past minutes newswires around the country and world are now reporting that the Federal Government has shut down IndyMac Bank and has handed it to the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.) as conservator.

Couple the shut down with the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac troubles, and we’re in for some really rocky waters next week. I’m willing to bet a lot of money that the announcement was held back from being made prior to the close of the stock market because of fears of a massive crash. Well . . . I think we’ll be seeing that happen this coming Monday!

Fasten your seat belts, people . . . we’re in for a ROCKY RIDE!

IndyMac Bank’s assets were seized by federal regulators on Friday after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.

The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, regulators said.

Yahoo Finance

In the biggest bank failure of the housing downturn to date, federal banking regulators today closed IndyMac Bank FSB, naming the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. as conservator.

The FDIC said it will transfer insured deposits and “substantially all the assets” of IndyMac Bank, to a newly created successor, IndyMac Federal Bank, which will be operated by the FDIC.

Insured depositors and borrowers will automatically become customers of IndyMac Federal, FSB and will continue to have uninterrupted customer service and access to their funds by ATM, debit cards and writing checks. Depositors of IndyMac Federal Bank FSB will have no access to online and phone banking services this weekend, but will regain access to them on Monday.

Inman News

IndyMac Bancorp Inc. became the second-biggest federally insured financial company to fail today after a run by depositors left the California mortgage lender short on cash.

The Pasadena, California-based bank specialized in so-called Alt-A mortgages, which didn’t require borrowers to provide documentation on their incomes. Its home state has been among the hardest hit by foreclosures.

Bloomberg

What’s next? Anyone?

Advertisement: Payday Loans Online from the leader in online cash advances since 2003.

This Post is from the BiggerPockets Real Estate Blog. Copyright © 2008 BiggerPockets, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

BREAKING: IndyMac Bank is Shut Down and Taken Over by Feds

The August 2008 issue of Consumer Reports — one of my favorite personal finance magazines — features two articles that may be of interest to readers of Get Rich Slowly. The first offers tips for cutting expenses. The second gives a brief overview of budgeting.

Cut your spending by $500 per month
The Consumer Reports Money Lab looked for easy ways for the average American to save money. They came up with six suggestions and estimated potential savings for the average consumer. Here are their suggestions (with links to relevant articles at GRS).

1. Find cheaper auto insurance. By shopping around, the average person can save $65 per month. Need help? Here are 10 expert tips for saving on car insurance.
2. Optimize your life insurance. Premiums have dropped in the past ten years, the article notes. It may be worth replacing an existing policy. Also, by adopting a healthier lifestyle, you can cut costs. Average savings? $110.
3. Shop smart for food. CR cites U.S. Department of Agriculture data indicating the average family of four can drop its grocery bill by nearly $200 per month though smarter shopping. We just discussed grocery shopping tips on Monday.
4. Stop paying bank fees. The average U.S. household pays more than $25 per month in bank fees. There’s no reason to do so. Learn how to avoid overdraft fees and get yourself a high-interest bank account.
5. Call up cell phone savings. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average family spends $90 on phone-related expenses. Consumer Reports suggests checking to be sure you’re not paying for too many minutes.
6. Pay off your credit card. If you can get out of debt, you’ll not only save on finance charges, but you’ll also free up the cash that was going to pay the principal. Estimated monthly savings: $65.

Consumer Reports also encourages readers to increase contributions to their 401(k) plans. This helps prepare for the future and reduces that tax bite today. You can read the entire article at the Consumer Reports web site.

Create a spending strategy
Last autumn, I shared my notion of a spending plan, which I called a “budget for non-budgeters”. Consumer Reports likes spending plans too:

That’s what a household budget really is — a plan to track your spending and keep it within boundaries. Done right, a budget lets you spend without guilt. Here we offer ways to make your budget — oops, spending plan — simple and painless.

Their advice will be familiar to long-time GRS readers:

• Set goals. I believe that the road to wealth is paved with goals. Consumer Reports believes that long-term goals help you achieve big things, while short-term goals keep you motivated.
• Track expenses. It doesn’t matter how you do it, but track your spending. You can use a notebook, computer software, or even online tools.
• Plan for surprises. If you haven’t already, start an emergency fund. Most experts advise saving three to six months of living expenses, but CR suggests a “personal escrow” approach instead.
• Set priorities. Know which bills get paid first. For most people, this means the big things like food and home. (If you pay yourself first, it may be your retirement.) Whatever’s left after your expenses is your discretionary money.

The full article includes tips on how to create a web-based spending plan. The rest of this month’s issue includes ratings of large kitchen appliances, tips on buying tickets to shows and ballgames, and a tests of two dozen running shoes. (They didn’t test the pair I bought last month, though.)

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Related Articles at Get Rich Slowly:

• The Consumer Reports Mother’s Day Gift Guide
• Credit Card Advice from Consumer Reports
• How to Drive a Great End-of-Summer New Car Deal
• 20 Free Ways to Save Energy
• Consumer Reports Auto Issue Round-Up: Top Picks for 2007

Essentially, Leasing is just an alternative way to finance a new vehicle. We know that when purchasing a new vehicle the down payment, sales tax and license fees are required to be paid up front. However when leasing a new vehicle you are required to pay only the first monthly payment, a security deposit (usually same as monthly payment), and the license fees. The sales tax (which is based on the capitalized value of the vehicle) is actually amortized over the term of the lease in most states. In other words, the taxes are included in the monthly payments.

Capitalized Cost

Essentially the capitalized cost of a new vehicle is the actual price you have agreed to pay for the vehicle.

Gross Capitalized Cost

The gross capitalized cost of a new vehicle includes the selling price of the vehicle (which is the capitalized cost plus acquisition fees, extended warranty, accident & health insurance, dealer title fee, payoff on your trade-in, credit life insurance, gap insurance and any other fees the dealer decides to charge you). Buyer beware; that most people really don't ever know what their capitalized cost is because it is buried within the gross capitalized cost and the dealer doesn't actually reveal this number unless he has to. Most car deals made at auto dealerships are negotiated on the basis of payment rather than price. This applies to both leasing and purchasing. Don't get caught in this trap! Make the dealer reveal the selling price for every payment offer he makes you!

Adjusted Capitalized Cost

The adjusted capitalized cost of a new vehicle is the gross capitalized cost minus (-) your down payment, net trade-in amount, rebates, license fees and taxes along with any other deductions given.

Depreciation/Residual

When purchasing a new vehicle your payments are based on the full value or selling price, plus extended warranty, tax & license, minus (-) rebate, down payment and net trade-in value. However, when you lease a vehicle your payments are based only on the "depreciation or your use" of the vehicle during the entire term of the lease. The depreciation is actually only a portion of the capitalized cost of the vehicle and is determined by the term of the lease, number of miles driven and condition of the vehicle at the end of the lease. The payments on a lease are based on the deprecation money factor (which is a form of interest rate) and the amortized taxes. Therefore, you can actually drive a more expensive vehicle with a lower payment if you lease. Please note that the depreciation is actually estimated and set at the inception of the lease.

The residual is the portion or balance of the adjusted capitalized cost after the deprecation has been deducted. The residual is just put aside in limbo until the end of the lease. The higher the residual - the lower your monthly payment. At the end of the lease you have two options. You can either turn the vehicle back into the bank or leasing company, or you can buy the vehicle outright for the residual balance. You can even refinance the residual. But keep in mind if you turn in the vehicle with more mileage than allowed on your contract, you will be charged any where from .12¢ to .25¢ for each extra mile. In an auto lease you are limited to a specific number of miles in your lease contact. The average would be from 12,000 to 15,000 miles per year. You may drive any number of miles in any given year but you cannot exceed the number of allotted miles or you will be penalized. If you purchase the vehicle the charge for the extra mileage will normally be waved. Most banks and finance companies will allow you to add an extra 15,000 to 20,000 miles to your lease contract depending on the term of the lease. However, the cost of the extra miles will be added to your gross capitalization cost and your monthly payment will be increased accordingly.

Ownership

When you have entered into a lease contract you cannot terminate the lease or turn-in your vehicle prior to the ending date of the contract. If you do this the bank will report this as a voluntary repossession on your credit record. On an auto lease the vehicle is actually registered and titled to the bank or leasing company. Therefore you do not own the vehicle, the bank does. You get to use the vehicle and are legally responsible for the upkeep and maintenance. Please note, if you don't maintain the vehicle during the lease you will be penalized for all excessive wear-and-tear when you turn it in. Also, if you really needed to get out of your lease you can buy out of the lease if you can get the financing or you can get someone to take over your lease. Of course, they will have to qualify.

Vehicle Warranties

The average new car warranty is 36 months or 36000 miles, which ever comes first. It is not recommended that you enter into a 4, 5 or 6 year lease contract because they are not economical. Even with a four-year lease it is common for the residual to be higher than the actual value of the vehicle at the end of the lease which makes it very hard to refinance. If you are like a lot of people you can lease a new vehicle every 2 to 3 years and never have to buy an extended warranty. The only time it would be beneficial to buy an extended warranty is if you knew you were going to buy the vehicle outright at the end of the lease.

Gap Insurance

Gap Insurance is basically insurance coverage on the difference between the actual value of your vehicle and the balance you owe on the lease including the residual. This kind of protection is needed in case your vehicle is involved in an accident and is declared a total loss. Gap Insurance is important especially for people who lease vehicles. The lease on a vehicle is actually designed for the balance owed to be upside-down in relation to the actual value of the vehicle until approximately the end date of the lease term. At this time the residual should fall in line or be equal to the vehicle's actual value. Gap Insurance is good for purchase financing as well. The gap is not as large as in leasing, but you still stand the chance of having to put out a great deal of money.

Final Advice

Remember, there are two main factors you must consider when you are thinking about leasing an automobile. The first is how long you intend to keep the vehicle and the second is how many miles you travel annually. If you intend to keep the vehicle a maximum of three years and you only average 15,000 miles a year, then you should definitely consider leasing. If you want to keep the new vehicle for more than three years, you should consider purchasing.

When you lease a vehicle, you very rarely have to put any money down, so lease a new vehicle every two to three years and you won't owe any money on the old vehicle, plus you'll never have to buy an extended warranty. Also, you will have spent a ton of money less for each vehicle than if you had purchased them. If you want to keep a vehicle longer just buy it at the end of the lease.

Remember, don't let the dealer try to sell you on the basis of payments. Negotiate on the price only and when you have agreed on the price then tell them you have a trade-in. When you have agreed to your trade-in value then tell them you want to lease the new vehicle. Now you know what to do from here. Also, dealerships have a tendency to quote lease payments without the monthly tax. This makes a big difference in the monthly payments. If you don't control this you will be sadly surprised when you go into the finance manager to sign the paperwork. One more thing - when you are signing the lease contract, be sure to verify that the trade-in value you have agreed upon is actually deducted from the capitalized cost. Otherwise the dealer could wind up purchasing your trade for pennies and you would never know.

Visit My site http://www.autopurchasesecrets.com for more free information on the secrets the dealerships don't want you to know.

About the Author

Brad spent thirteen years in the Automobile business, specifically auto sales and worked for several Dealerships. He held positions from Retail Salesman up through New Car Manager and Fleet Manager. During this period Brad received an excellent education on what goes on inside the Automobile Dealerships. You can visit and communicate with Brad at his website http://www.autopurchasese